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Medicaid Reform

Medicaid’s open-ended financing rewards overspending and favors wealthy states, while crowding out care for the most vulnerable. The ACA worsened the problem by giving higher reimbursements for able-bodied adults. Reform is needed to restore fairness, improve efficiency, and refocus Medicaid on truly low-income patients.

Medicaid Reform

Medicaid’s open-ended financing rewards overspending and favors wealthy states, while crowding out care for the most vulnerable. The ACA worsened the problem by giving higher reimbursements for able-bodied adults. Reform is needed to restore fairness, improve efficiency, and refocus Medicaid on truly low-income patients.

The GOP can make the strong and accurate argument that fixing this bias in federal payments is shoring up the program to better serve the vulnerable. Paragon Health Institute, a think tank, has done the intellectual leg work for the GOP and rolled out proposals to rationalize the payment treatment over time.
The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board

Americans Want Common Sense Medicaid Reforms

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Paragon Health Policy Survey 2025

The results of our survey indicate that voters do not see a conflict between Medicaid reform and protecting the most vulnerable. Across party lines, Americans overwhelmingly support policies that prioritize children, pregnant women, seniors, and the disabled and that root out waste, fraud, and abuse.

Stopping Medicaid Money Laundering

Stopping Medicaid Money Laundering

Ending the Discrimination Against the Most Vulnerable

Eliminating Schemes that Put Illegal Immigrants on Medicaid

Paragon Pics

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Medicaid Managed Care Now Accounts for the Majority of Medicaid Spending

This PIC shows the growth in Medicaid managed care over a 25-year period from 1999 through 2024. By 2021, Medicaid managed care accounted for more than half of all Medicaid spending. In 1999, payments to managed care organizations (MCOs) represented just 12 percent of Medicaid spending. By 2024, that share had climbed to 54 percent, roughly $490 billion of the program’s $909 billion in total outlays. The figure traces this transformation, with managed care spending (dark blue) steadily displacing traditional fee-for-service and other Medicaid spending (light blue). The trajectory steepens notably after the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, with a further steepening after the ACA Medicaid expansion took effect in 2014. As we have previously shown, the ACA has been very profitable for health insurance companies.

This dramatic shift raises an important question: Has Medicaid managed care actually worked? When states began moving enrollees into MCOs, advocates argued that private insurers would coordinate care better, curb unnecessary spending, and improve quality. Yet after three decades of expansion, the evidence remains remarkably weak. The Congressional Budget Office found no consistent evidence that managed care improves outcomes, and a recent paper by Chris Pope of the Manhattan Institute concludes the case for managed care is thin.

Oversight has also failed to keep pace. Nearly half of MCO filings are incomplete, and medical loss ratio rules meant to keep spending on care rather than profit go largely unenforced. Meanwhile, state-directed payments, which are large payments that states make to hospitals through MCOs, ballooned from two states in 2016 to a projected $124 billion across 39 states by 2025. State-directed payments increasingly functioning as corporate welfare to politically powerful providers. The One Big Beautiful Bill capped these payments at Medicare rates. While those reforms are important, there are additional reforms needed to bring greater transparency and accountability to Medicaid MCOs.

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Child Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment Remains Above Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2026

This PIC shows that child enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP remains above its pre-pandemic level as a share of the total population aged 0-18. In January 2020, 45.3 percent of children were enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP, nearly identical to the average level of 45.4 percent from 2018 to 2019. In January 2026, the last month for which complete data is available, that share was 47.3 percent, a two percentage-point increase. Enrollment rose sharply during the pandemic because federal law largely prohibited states from removing Medicaid enrollees, even when they were no longer eligible. This led to dramatic enrollment growth, as shown in the figure. At its peak in 2023, Medicaid child enrollment and CHIP enrollment together covered more than half of all children. Since 2023, the share has declined, but it is still greater than pre-pandemic levels.

This historical perspective is important context for assessing recent claims that declining child enrollment in Medicaid/CHIP reflects children losing health coverage due to “spillover effects” or “chilling effects” from the program integrity reforms in the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) and other actions of the Trump administration. As Paragon has argued, enrollment declines in Medicaid/CHIP after 2023 should be interpreted alongside the unwinding of pandemic-era continuous coverage rules, duplicate enrollment cleanup, demographic change (particularly the decline in the fertility rate and number of children in the U.S. during this period), and normal eligibility redeterminations. Until these common-sense explanations are explored empirically, claims that the OBBB is driving up the number of uninsured children are speculative and unsupported by the available evidence. Moreover, it is crucial not to conflate Medicaid/CHIP enrollment with insurance coverage, access to care, or health outcomes.

(It is also important to note that the population estimates we use from the Census Bureau include all children living in the U.S., regardless of immigration or legal status. Since undocumented children are ineligible for Medicaid/CHIP coverage in most states, the PIC slightly understates the share of eligible children enrolled in Medicaid/CHIP.)

Overall, the figure shows that child Medicaid and CHIP enrollment remains elevated relative to historical averages, even after the decline associated with the unwinding of continuous coverage requirements. Rather than showing a collapse in child coverage in public programs, the data are consistent with enrollment gradually normalizing after the significant pandemic-era expansion.

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How Medicaid Funds for Nurse Training Were Diverted to Union Benefits and Lobbyists

Waste, fraud, and abuse in Medicaid benefit bad actors at a steep cost to the truly vulnerable and hard-working Americans. But as CMS Director, Dr. Oz recently noted, the spoils of this manipulation often benefit the politically connected, like unions.

New York State offers a prime example of how unions leverage Medicaid dollars for their own gain. As Bill Hammond of the Empire Center has documented, hundreds of millions of Medicaid dollars intended to improve nursing home care were diverted to increase union benefits instead.

Hammond first examined the annual benefit reports, audits, and state plan amendments (SPAs) and found that New York nursing homes worked with a labor union to redirect funds for improving patient care into employee benefit funds. This money was meant for “training,” but instead, the nursing homes sent a large portion of the money to a benefit fund affiliated with the 1199 Service Employees International Union (SEIU). In exchange, the union reduced how much the nursing homes would have to spend on their employees’ benefits. One of those funds even redirected some of that money to an advocacy group through which unions and hospitals collude to push for more Medicaid funding to feed this arrangement.

How do we know? It’s all in the audits.

How federal taxpayer dollars end up in New York union hands

The federal government and states both finance Medicaid. The federal government reimburses states at a percentage known as the federal medical assistance percentage (FMAP). In the case of New York, its FMAP is 50 percent for traditional enrollees—the elderly, the disabled, children, and pregnant women. During this period, the effective aggregate federal share of New York Medicaid spending was over 60 percent.

In 2015, New York created the “Advanced Training Initiative” (ATI). On paper, the program sounded reasonable: train nursing home workers to identify early signs of patient decline. New York’s 2015 SPA states that the “participating providers” would have to “develop (or continue) a training curriculum” to “help staff identify changes in a resident’s [status] that could lead to hospitalization.” The SPA only mentions unions in its appendix, noting the programs would be “developed in cooperation between Nursing Home providers and union representatives.” But the SPA appendix makes no mention of benefit funds. The state told federal officials it would spend $46 million annually and sought the 50 percent federal match.

But that’s not where all the money went.

Large portions of ATI money were routed into union-affiliated benefit funds. Specifically, both funds are affiliated with 1199 SEIU, the largest health care union in the United States, which Stephen Eide and Daniel DiSalvo referred to as the “union that rules New York.” Those funds’ own financial filings show the money wasn’t primarily used for training. It was used to offset nursing homes’ contributions to their employees’ benefits through two funds.

The Greater New York Benefit Fund (GNYBF) received $207 million from ATI from 2015 to 2024. The National Benefit Fund for Health and Human Service Employees (NBF) received at least $26 million from 2015 to 2018, with additional amounts likely received in subsequent years. Combined, these two funds received at least $233 million from 2015 to 2024—more than half of the ATI’s cumulative $460 million funding during that period.

Nursing homes sent ATI money to the union benefit funds in exchange for lower required contributions to employee benefit plans. The money then showed up on balance sheets as assets available to pay benefits, not as expenditures on training programs. One of those funds, NBF, even spent an unknown amount on the Healthcare Education Project (HEP)—a lobbying and advertising operation jointly run by the union and the hospital industry. HEP has engaged in multimillion-dollar ad buys as well as political campaigns and advocacy efforts to push for increased Medicaid spending.

To recap: Medicaid dollars meant for training were routed into union benefit funds. But that’s not what CMS approved. The SPAs described a straightforward training initiative to improve patient care. It mentioned unions only as partners in developing training programs and said nothing about routing hundreds of millions of dollars into union benefit funds.

As part of its war on fraud, CMS should investigate whether New York used Medicaid funds in a manner inconsistent with the SPA approved by the federal government. Medicaid dollars should improve patient care—not subsidize union benefit funds or finance political advocacy.

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Medicaid Expansion Enrollees Represent Nearly One-Third of Enrollees in Expansion States

Medicaid was originally created to serve society’s most vulnerable Americans—pregnant women, children, seniors, and people with disabilities. Obamacare dramatically expanded the program to millions of able-bodied, working-age adults and created powerful incentives for states to maximize expansion enrollment. For every $1 states spend on expansion adults, the federal government contributes roughly $9—far more generous than the federal match for traditional Medicaid populations.

This Paragon PIC shows the share of Medicaid enrollees classified as ACA expansion adults by state. On average, expansion adults account for roughly 30 percent of Medicaid enrollment in expansion states, and they represent more than 40 percent of Medicaid enrollees in several states, including Oregon, Louisiana, and Nevada.

These figures help illustrate how large the Obamacare expansion population has become relative to Medicaid’s traditional populations. In many states, healthy, working-age adults now comprise between one-quarter and one-half of all Medicaid enrollees.

The expansion’s financing structure also creates significant program integrity concerns because states receive a much more generous federal match for expansion adults than for traditional enrollees. As prior Paragon research has shown, some states may have incentives to classify traditional enrollees as expansion adults to secure enhanced federal reimbursement.

Research also suggests that Medicaid expansion has strained access to care for traditional Medicaid enrollees while delivering relatively limited value for taxpayers and beneficiaries. Studies have found that expansion can increase wait times, reduce access to providers, and generate relatively low value relative to program costs.

Other Related Content

Related Glossary Terms

Supplemental Payments
A Medicaid supplemental payment is a lump sum payment paid by the Medicaid program to a health care provider in addition to Medicaid payments for specific health care services that have been rendered. These payments are largely received by hospitals and include DSH payments, upper payment limit (UPL) payments, uncompensated care pool (UCP) payments, and delivery system reform incentive (DSRIP) payments. By 2019, these payments grew to 17.5 percent of total Medicaid spending and 27 percent of Medicaid spending on hospitals. The growth in supplemental payments increases lobbying with government officials having discretion to award large Medicaid payments, payments consisting mostly or entirely…
Medicaid Expansion
Medicaid expansion is the Affordable Care Act’s change to broaden Medicaid program eligibility and increase the number of people who qualify for the program. A major component of this expanded eligibility for state Medicaid programs was eligibility for a new category of people—able-bodied, working-age, and generally childless adults. The ACA created a much higher FMAP for this category—equal to 100 percent from 2014-2016, gradually declining until it reached 90 percent in 2020, where it is scheduled to remain. This FMAP policy incentivized states to expand Medicaid because most of the budgetary costs for the population of expanded enrollees were paid…
Federal Medical Assistance Percentage
The Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) is the statutory percentage of Medicaid expenditures paid by the federal government. For traditional Medicaid enrollees (low-income pregnant women, children, seniors, and individuals with disabilities), the FMAP is largely a function of state per capita income as states with lower per capita income receive a higher FMAP. No state receives an FMAP below 50 percent. For Medicaid expansion enrollees, the FMAP is equal to 90 percent. The actual percentage of Medicaid expenditures paid by the federal government is substantially higher than the FMAP since states employ numerous accounting gimmicks and financial schemes to minimize…
Average Commercial Rate
The average commercial rate (ACR) refers to the mean payment amount for a medical service as determined by leading commercial insurers’ reimbursement rates for the same service. The ACR may be used to define the maximum limit of a state Medicaid program’s supplemental payments to health care providers that are in excess of the state’s Medicaid standard rates. HHS guidance on ACR payments states when provider payment “is made up to the ACR states must submit data from the top (generally five) third party payers and provide a full explanation of the data that was extracted from providers’ accounts receivable…

Issue Experts

Brian Blase
President at Paragon Health Institute

Brian Blase, Ph.D., is the President of Paragon Health Institute. Brian was Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy at the White House’s National Economic Council (NEC) from 2017-2019, where he coordinated the development and execution of numerous health policies and advised the President, NEC director, and senior officials. After leaving the White House, Brian founded Blase Policy Strategies and served as its CEO.

Gary Alexander
Director Medicaid and Health Safety Net Reform Initiative at Paragon Health Institute

A nationally recognized health services expert and government reformer, Gary D. Alexander was head of the Medicaid and Health Safety Net Initiative at the Paragon Health Institute from October 2021 to October 2025.

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