The ACA Subsidy Myth Misleading the Polls and the Public

The effort to let the temporary COVID-era ACA subsidies expire is going well. Conservatives have been united, and both Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson have repeatedly made strong statements, demanding that Democrats vote to end the government shutdown first as a precondition for discussing the add-on Obamacare subsidies.

But two myths still threaten to undermine the effort to end the fiscally irresponsible COVID-era policy. The first myth is that the expiration of the temporary enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies means the end of all ACA subsidies. The second is that the temporary ACA subsidies are popular with the American people—the implication being that if the GOP lets the subsidies expire, they will be wiped out in the 2026 mid-terms.

Looking closer, the two myths are intertwined. The second myth exploits the first myth to mislead people—and unfortunately this includes a few members on Capitol Hill, many in the media, and a significant portion of the public.

One of the cardinal rules of polling, of course, is that question wording is often decisive. When pollsters fail to provide context for the costs and trade-offs of different policy options or present misleading background, they are no longer surveying opinion. Rather, they are engaging in “push polling.” We are seeing this manipulation in many of the polls and much of the reporting on the COVID-era ACA subsidy add-ons.

Here are the facts.

Fact No. 1: ACA subsidies are not ending.

When the Affordable Care Act (aka “Obamacare”) was first passed, the ACA established generous subsidies in the form of premium tax credits to pay the premiums for those who qualified. During the Biden administration, Democrats in Congress expanded those credits even further. These “enhanced” ACA subsidies, known as Biden COVID Credits, were meant to be a temporary measure to address the financial challenges of the pandemic. Democrats—with no Republican support—set them to expire at the end of 2025.

Many people don’t understand what is being debated because there are a lot of terms flying around—with a lot of folks in media and elected office deliberately conflating issues to mislead the public.

There is a critical difference between ACA subsidies and enhanced ACA subsidies; Obamacare subsidies and enhanced Obamacare subsidies; premium tax credits and advanced premium tax credits; ACA credits and Biden COVID Credits. In each of these pairings, the first term is what Obamacare put in place when it was passed, and those credits are permanent. The second term refers to the temporary, COVID-era, add-on subsidies for ACA enrollees.

Failing to make this distinction in speeches or reporting creates the false impression that all ACA subsidies are ending. Even if the COVID-era credit add-ons expire as Democrats planned, Paragon shows that generous taxpayer support of ACA enrollees would continue. The federal government would still be paying more than 80 percent of the insurance premium for the average ACA enrollee. Data published last week by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services shows that most enrollees would be able to purchase the lowest cost plan for less than $50 per month.

Many individuals and groups that claim to support robust enrollment are intentionally providing the false impression to potential enrollees and American voters that all assistance to purchase health insurance in the exchanges will expire—potentially discouraging enrollment.

Fact No. 2: Voters support ending the temporary ACA subsidies.

The second myth driving sentiment for extending the enhanced ACA subsidies is the belief that the public supports them. But these results are coming from polls that lead respondents to believe the permanent ACA subsidies are expiring not just the COVID credits. These are push-polls.

A perfect example of this was recent polling for Plymouth Union Public Advocacy in states with critical 2026 races. Here is how the question was asked in Georgia:

Do you support or oppose tax credits that make it more affordable for working families and individuals to purchase health insurance directly through healthcare.gov or state exchanges?

At no point does the question make it clear the actual policy debate is about the temporary, add-on, COVID-era tax credits. In fact, respondents were given the impression that both the credits that were established in the ACA (which are permanent) and the COVID-era credits expire at the end of the year. For example:

These tax credits for health insurance that people purchase on their own are set to expire at the end of the year. Current estimates say if these tax credits expire, then premiums will double, and five million families will lose health coverage. Knowing this, should Congress extend the tax credit, or let the tax credit expire this year?

So, if you were relying on the poll for your background on this issue (as most voters would), you’d understandably think that what was at issue was the expiration of all ACA subsidies.

It’s no surprise that polls like these (and there are many) claim “nearly eight in ten voters” support the tax credits. These results show what happens when the first myth is used to deceive voters by intertwining the permanent ACA subsidies with enhanced subsidies.

What happens when this myth is removed?

Voters support letting the enhanced subsidies expire. How do we know? Paragon commissioned a poll, using Public Opinion Strategies, and we made sure the question wording be fair and balanced. Judge for yourself:

To help Americans get through the COVID pandemic, Congress passed legislation to expand assistance to Americans who receive health care coverage through Obamacare. The legislation increased the amount of the subsidies people receive to help them pay their premiums, and it expanded the number of Americans who can receive the subsidies. The legislation made the insurance cost nothing to nearly half of the people in the program, with the subsidies going directly to insurance companies. These enhanced subsidies are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress votes to make them permanent. Which of the following statements do you agree with more, even if neither describes exactly how you feel?

When asked in this much more careful way, a majority (53 percent) said “Congress should allow these enhanced subsidies to expire and return to the subsidy levels that existed before COVID.” Just 47 percent said that Congress should make the enhanced subsidies permanent.  That’s a far cry from the “nearly eight in ten.”

Another pollster, i360, conducted a poll for Americans For Prosperity. It provides another example of what more balanced wording looks like:

To help Americans get through the COVID pandemic, Congress increased the subsidy amount given to qualified Americans who buy insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare. These higher subsidies—passed during the pandemic and later extended by the Biden administration in the Inflation Reduction Act—are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. Which of the following comes closer to your view?

Posed this way, only 30 percent of registered voters said, “Congress should extend the higher COVID-era subsidies.” A plurality of 38 percent supported letting them expire and return to previous subsidy levels. (Nearly one in three were “not sure.”)

It is worth noting that neither the Paragon nor the AFP poll mentioned the more than $400 billion cost over the next decade of extending the enhanced premium credits, that credits have led to $27 billion a year in fraud, or that Democrats alone were the ones who set them to expire. Had we included those facts, support for ending the temporary, add-on Obamacare subsidies would have undoubtedly been even higher.

The bottom line is: If you want to spot a deceptive poll on the temporary ACA subsidies, look for the first myth and you’ll know it is just another push-poll coming from those fighting to defend irresponsible policies leftover from the Biden-COVID era.