When the enhanced premium tax credits (also known as Biden’s COVID credits) expire at the end of 2025, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will revert to its original subsidy structure, and taxpayers will still shoulder most of the premium costs for the vast majority of enrollees. Even without the temporary pandemic add-ons, low- and middle-income households will continue to receive substantial federal assistance. Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the government, or taxpayer, share of premiums once the COVID credits expire.
Figure 1 shows the government or taxpayer amount for a benchmark plan premium in 2026 for single enrollees at different ages. The solid line shows the taxpayer amount for enrollees based on household income, and the dashed line is the premium amount. The difference between the dashed line and the solid line is the enrollee’s premium amount.
Because subsidies cap what households pay as a share of income, older enrollees with higher-priced premiums receive much larger subsidies. At 150 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL), taxpayers finance the following share of the benchmark plan premium:
• 82% of the premium for a 21-year-old ($4,604 of $5,587)
• 86% of the premium for a 40-year-old ($6,173 of $7,157)
• 90% of the premium for a 50-year-old ($9,010 of $9,994)
• 94% of the premium for a 64-year-old ($15,792 of $16,776)
Nearly three-quarters of exchange enrollees report incomes below 250 percent FPL, meaning that most will continue to have the bulk of their premiums financed by taxpayers even after the COVID credits expire.
Figure 2 is like Figure 1, but for bronze plans. Bronze plans have lower premiums but higher cost-sharing. Because subsidy amounts don’t vary by plan type, taxpayers cover an even greater share when enrollees pick bronze plans. At 200 percent FPL, taxpayers finance the following share of the premium for a bronze plan:
• 82% for a 21-year-old ($3,521 of $4,291)
• 93% for a 40-year-old ($5,091 of $5,486)
• 100% for a 50-year-old ($7,675 of $7,675)
• 100% for a 64-year-old ($12,888 of $12,888)
Bottom line: After Biden’s COVID credits expire, ACA subsidies will remain extremely generous, with taxpayers continuing to cover the vast majority of the cost of coverage for most enrollees.
