2. CMS’s Proposed Payment Offsets Strain the Federal Budget
The budget neutrality adjustment proposed by CMS also negatively impacts the Medicare program’s finances to an unnecessary extent due to its amount and its time frame. Given that Part B benefits are the fastest growing component of Medicare expenditures, the program as a whole will increasingly rely on transfers from the Supplemental Medical Insurance Trust Fund, which in turn will divert general revenues from other federal programs and increase the federal debt burden. This is the reason why the Medicare trustees have issued a funding warning six years in a row and a determination of excess general revenue funding for Medicare seven years in a row.
CMS provides several reasons in its 340B remedy proposed rule for why the amount owed to 340B hospitals exceeds the amount offset by the original budget neutrality adjustment from 2018 to 2022. We are not disputing any of these reasons. However, the decision to recoup only the original budget neutrality payments leaves a fiscal imbalance. Under CMS’s proposed remedy, 340B hospitals would receive a total of $10.5 billion in repayments from the federal government ($9.0 billion in lump-sum repayments and $1.5 billion in already-reprocessed claims from January 1 to September 27, 2022), but the federal government would recoup only $6.2 billion. (The remaining $1.6 billion would go to beneficiaries in the form of reduced cost-sharing.) This arrangement would amount to $4.3 billion in excess payments from taxpayers to hospitals. That is, despite CMS’s stated goal of “turning back the clock,” its proposed remedy leaves taxpayers $4.3 billion worse off than they would have been if its 340B policy had not been enacted. This does not fulfil the purpose of the OPPS budget neutrality adjustment, which, as CMS notes in its proposed rule, is to protect the public and beneficiaries by limiting Part B expenditures, which come mostly from tax and premium dollars.
The disparate time periods for the lump-sum repayment and the budget neutrality adjustment also strain the federal budget for several reasons. First, numerous exogenous developments or shocks could occur over a 16-year time frame that would undermine the recoupment of $7.8 billion during that period. For example, a major recession, pandemic, or natural disaster could compel CMS or Congress to apply regulatory flexibilities to health care providers that would disrupt the recoupment process. A longer time frame therefore decreases the probability that CMS will successfully offset the full $7.8 billion as proposed. This also increases policy and business uncertainty for health care providers.
Second, the negative payment balance from this remedy would be larger in the near future than in the latter years, since the lump-sum payment would be offset over time. Since Part B expenses mostly come from general revenues, that means that this remedy would contribute to the federal debt in the short run. Interest payments on this debt would “lock in” its impact on the budget, and over the next decade such payments would exceed the preceding 50-year average as a percent of gross domestic product. Continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve would exacerbate this situation.
Finally, the disparate time periods further worsen the proposed remedy’s budgetary impact because each dollar of costs from the lump-sum payment will be more valuable than each dollar offset in future years due to the time-value of money. CMS does not discuss in its proposed rule whether its estimated budget neutrality adjustments are inflation-adjusted, nor does it offer analysis using discount rates. Guidance from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) generally requires agencies to consider both factors in regulatory analysis, as “benefits or costs that occur sooner are generally more valuable.” Furthermore, “[b]enefits and costs do not always take place in the same time period. When they do not, it is incorrect simply to add all of the expected net benefits or costs without taking account of when they actually occur. If benefits or costs are delayed or otherwise separated in time from each other, the difference in timing should be reflected in [the agency’s] analysis…. When, and only when, the estimated benefits and costs have been discounted, they can be added to determine the overall value of net benefits” Stipulating that CMS’s regulatory impact analysis uses real rather than nominal dollars, which is particularly important in the recent high inflation environment, the long time frame of budget neutrality adjustments means that the present value (PV) of the funds that CMS expects to recoup is lower than the full $7.8 billion adjustment proposed. OMB generally requires agencies to report results using discount rates of 3 percent and 7 percent, and although this is not typical practice in CMS’s Medicare rulemaking, it is essential that it do so when it specifically proposes policy changes that extend over a longer time period.
In Table 1 below, we compare CMS’s estimated cumulative budget neutrality adjustments from the proposed rule with the PV based on these two discount rates as well as the intermediate real-interest rate of 2.3 percent used in the 2023 Medicare trustees report. Based on this analysis, assuming no inflation adjustment is necessary, the PV of the total recoupment amount ranges from $4.3 billion to $6.3 billion rather than $7.8 billion. In terms of the net impact on federal payments (that is, subtracting the estimated impact on beneficiary cost-sharing), this budget neutrality adjustment would save $3.5 billion to $5.1 billion versus the $9.0 billion proposed lump-sum repayment and the $1.5 billion already paid out in 2022—amounting to a PV of $5.4 billion to $7.0 billion in excess taxpayer expenses.