North Carolina has become the 40th state to succumb to federal cash and adopt ObamaCare’s Medicaid expansion for able-bodied working-age adults. A new study from the Paragon Health Institute shows there is little to celebrate. Overall health is unlikely to improve despite this massive increase in public welfare.
We now have 10 years of data on ObamaCare’s Medicaid expansion. The evidence against the policy is overwhelming: Expansion leads to a surge in spending but reduces healthcare access for traditional Medicaid enrollees such as low-income children and people with disabilities. And it doesn’t improve health.
The Paragon study contains specific estimates for Florida, one of the most populous states that have resisted the policy. If Florida expands Medicaid, some 2.5 million people would newly enroll in the program. Three in 10 Floridians would be on Medicaid, and there would be only 1.5 workers for every Medicaid enrollee. Among people who join Medicaid, 65% would replace private coverage.
The cost of expansion to Florida’s state taxpayers would reach $2 billion by the end of the decade. To pay for that, the state would need to raise its sales tax from 6% to 6.4% or significantly cut other public priorities such as education.
